some bloggers are overly optimistic on this revolution. what they don't get is who benefits: Iran will betray Qaddaffi. The fact that they are aligned before means nothing!
Michael Rubin is getting a little ahead of the curve here, but I hope he's right anyway.
Qaddafi’s exile or death will be the last nail in the coffin of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Egyptians thought, “If Tunisians can do it, why not us.” When Mubarak fled, Libyans concluded that it was their turn. If people power can topple Qaddafi, not even the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will be able to contain the rage of the Iranian people. And if the Islamic Republic collapses, then suddenly the threats from Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad will decline as their state support evaporates.
I suppose this shouldn't come as too big a surprise.
In an interview today on the Al Arabyia news network, an informed source within the Revolutionary Guards Corps revealed that Iran has several military bases in Libya.Then why has Ahmadinejad come out in favor of the revolution in Libya? Especially when Gadhafi has behaved toward Libyans in the exact same way that Ahmadinejad behaved toward Iranians since the summer of 2009.... Probably because he figures that Gadhafi's done anyway, so there's no point in not hopping on the revolutionary bandwagon. Besides, Ahmadinejad's angling for Libya's new rulers to let him keep those bases there. The bases are staging areas for smuggling arms and training out of sight of the West.
The source, who requested anonymity due to his sensitive position within the Guards, elaborated further that the Iranian military bases are located mostly along Libya’s borders with the African countries of Chad and Niger. From there, he said, the Guards actively smuggle arms and supply logistical assistance to rebellious groups in the African countries.
According to this source, Guards enter Libya under the guise of oil company employees. Most of these companies are under the control of the Revolutionary Guards.
The source, who is a colonel in the Guards, added that Gaddafi and his government are quite aware of these activities and have even signed joint contracts with those Iranian oil companies so that the the Guards can enter Libya without any trouble.
The colonel stated that with the current unrest in Libya, over 500 Guards have been unable to evacuate and are under orders to destroy all documents.
According to this source, the military collaborations between the Revolutionary Guards and the Gaddafi government date back to 2006.
What could go wrong?