Rosenberg: Core CapEx Orders Signal Recession - Business Insider

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David RosenbergBloombergTVBest via YouTube
Economists often note that durable goods orders is one of the more volatile economic indicators that we get every month.
However, there wasn't much sugar-coating anyone could do to the Thursday's report that showed durable goods orders plunged 13 percent in August.  Economists were looking for a 5.0 percent decline.
In his latest Breakfast with Dave note, David Rosenberg points to one sub-component of the durable goods report that sent a particularly scary signal.
The three-month moving average of core capex orders (i.e. nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft) was -4.1 percent in August.
"History shows when the trend weakened to the level we see today, the economy was in recession 100% of the time," wrote Rosenberg. "So stick that in you pipe and smoke it!"
This is also bad news for jobs.  According to Rosenberg's data
, this measure has an 83 percent correlation with private employment.
 durable unemployment
Rosenberg also notes that durable goods orders has an 86% correlation to the stock market.
durable goods
Gluskin Sheff

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